Lots of us in business think we are pretty smart when it comes to making strategy. Weve had a few good years. Bit of growth, smart products, good clients, money in the bank. But every so often you read something that questions the very basis of your thinking.
The latest piece from McKinsey & Company does just that. It ponders why after 40 years of management theory, great know-how and executive training do such bad business decisions happen. Surely it is more than greed and poor analysis. McKinsey puts forward an interesting idea it is the human brain and the shortcuts, biases and bad habits it has evolved over the millennia that is part of the problem.
It all means that the brain can deceive us when we come to make rational decisions.
McKinsey identified eight insights drawn from behavioural economics theory:
Overconfidence (great for launching new businesses but lousy for getting
strategy right);
Mental accounting (treating money differently depending on where it comes
from, and how it is used i.e. preferring strategic investment in the Internet
vs. investment in core business activity);
The Status Quo Bias (together with aversion to loss and wanting to hold
on to what we already own makes us reluctant to see the opportunities in selling
assets to create value);
Anchoring (particularly where we become anchored to past performance
as an indicator of future performance);
The Sunk Cost Effect (where we often throw good money after bad given
our original commitment to a particular dubious project);
The Herding Instinct (the desire to conform to the behaviour and opinions
of others as in the dot-com era);
Misestimating Future Hedonic States (Code for how bad people are at estimating
how much pleasure or pain they will feel if their circumstances change dramatically
as in the way managers react to corporate takeover attempts); and the
big one
False Consensus (our tendency to seek out opinions and facts that support
our own; our habit of remembering only facts and experiences that reinforce
our assumptions; accepting evidence that supports our views and subjecting contrary
views to hostile evaluation; and groupthink the pressure to agree with
others in team based cultures).
It is worth checking against this list your own motives and approach on strategy development and steering around the traps they present. In the end, it may help us all reduce the chance of making some bad decisions.
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